Can’t get a spot in one of the golf comps at the Basin? Do you have to sit like a hawk until the sheet opens & jump in pronto?
Are you able to get a game at one or other of our golf courses on the days you want to play?
Tully Heard Report’s Golf Capacity/Demand Model – Totally Flawed
The Tully Heard (Consultant’s) Report into options for the Vincentia premises contained a totally invalid model for golf capacity versus demand. Its conclusion was that there is already vastly excessive capacity compared to the demand of this golfing community, and that removal of the Vincentia course would be barely noticed.
Exclude the Tully Heard model’s access to other courses (Sussex Inlet and Callala), as this does not represent the real local impact to our Country Club golf members, who currently have access to the two Country Club courses for one annual fee.
Why does this matter? Because excess capacity was a key argument for being able to sell-off Vincentia land without affecting the golf community; when in fact it’s a key fallacy that affects all of our Country Club golf members.
We know that members have been unable to get into weekly competition games (particularly Men’s at the Basin), and hence the booking sheets are manually managed to provide fresh openings each week to give a fair chance for golfers to book in.
Actual Capacity versus Demand Model
The most meaningful Capacity/Demand model is for the Men’s competitions. This is where the number of members vastly exceeds the available competition spots.
Today there is insufficient capacity for all men to play one competition / week.
Basis & Assumptions:
Number of slots in a competition event at SGB = 176. (44 slots x 4 players between 7am-noon)
Number of slots in a competition event at Vincentia = 88. (22 slots x 4 players, starting between 7.30-8.20am & 10-11.30am, to allow for crossover on the 13-hole course)
With two Men’s competitions a week at each course (one weekday and one Saturday), the combined number of slots per week is 528.
There are approximately 530 Men’s golf members at the SGB sub-club and 200 at Vincentia competing for available competition slots.
Men’s comps run approximately 50 weeks/year.
Based on these numbers, the capacity model indicates that if all men wanted to play in competition golf:
A SGB member has a 33% chance of getting to play in a SGB comp event.
A Vincentia member has a 44% chance to play in a Vincentia comp event.
All men have a 36% chance of playing at one of the 2 courses on a Saturday.
All men have a 72% chance of playing once/week at either of the CC courses.
Note: Quote from the Tully Heard report: “Golf Australia provides that the average annual rounds for all golf members of clubs is 28, with the highest group being 36 for persons 65 plus years of age.” Hence the inclusion of “36/year” frequency.
Bottom line
The Tully Heard Report concludes (Para 2.6):
“The overall conclusion is that supply exceeds demand by a significant margin, even under very optimistic demand assumptions, and even where Vincentia is excluded from supply.”
The actual capacity model shows in the hotly contested Men’s competitions that:
Even with 2 Men’s competitions a week at each course (one weekday and one Saturday), all men cannot play once / week.
The current course capacity only just meets Golf Australia’s average 36 rounds/year.
Reducing Vincentia to a 9 hole course would make some, albeit small, reduction of the current capacity. But removing the Vincentia course altogether would dramatically reduce competition availability, equating to each member playing one competition per fortnight.
Social Golf Capacity
Meanwhile, Vincentia has plenty of capacity to host profitable social golf, an increasing source of income as the visitors’ market continues to grow. This is the value of a two premises Club that can exploit the strengths of each for the benefit of the overall business.
Written by Rosalie Wood, FoVGC Inc. Vice President
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